Worked example · sea-level model only · baked data

Dare County, North Carolina — where the water wins, decade by decade

The Outer Banks under sea-level scenarios: 868 square kilometers of today's land, each reclassified — or not — per scenario, per decade. Step the scenarios and watch the submergence band advance. On the same scenario and decade the model reclassifies 28 of Berkeley County's 3,301 land tiles against 445 of Dare's 868; the same rule, applied to very different ground, gives very different answers.

Static

This page is a snapshot, baked 2026-09-09 — and it carries no opportunity scores. The Arcanium Index for this county is not on this page; scored ground is available with a plan.

submergence risk new waterfront (hypothesis) transition zone (hypothesis) coastal — holds unaffected inland open water today: not drawn

Read-only example. The live product pairs this view with the Arcanium Index, factor screening and a per-tile dossier — see plans.

What this view shows

Land that is dry today, reclassified per scenario and decade: forecast chronic inundation in red, the hypothesized new waterfront behind it, and the ground that holds. Cells that are open water already are not drawn at all — water today is not a forecast.

Why the edge is jagged

The stair-step edge is the honest statement of resolution. The model works at 1 km; a smooth line would claim parcel-level precision it does not hold. Scenario and decade are always on screen, because "at risk" without them is not a claim.

This is the sea-level half of one county's story. The Index — what the ground is worth on one absolute world scale — is the other half, and it is available with a plan.

Commission an analysis →